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Change is overdue in Argentina

October 25, 2015

But will voters seize the opportunity?

Our endorsement for Argentina’s presidential election
 
 


On Sunday, October 25th, Argentines go to the polls to choose the successor of Cristina Kirchner –the current president– as well as members of the lower and upper houses of Congress. Twelve years have passed since Nestor Kirchner –the current president’s husband– came to power inaugurating an era of populist, authoritarian government. While the Kirchners benefited tremendously from the commodities boom that increased the prices of Argentina’s farm exports, permitting an exceptional spending increase in social programs, they took the chance to amass power through the adoption of a confrontational style and the total disregard for the rule of law.

The Kirchner era leaves an Argentina with high levels of poverty (despite huge increases in social spending), an annual inflation rate in the high 20s, a destroyed national statistics agency, an unbearable tax burden, a closed economy, plummeting educational standards, increasing crime rates, an increasing budget deficit, a lack of access to international capital markets, a divided society, a weakened rule of law, a growing threat of drug trafficking and narco-related violence, and a myriad of corruption scandals going all the way up to the president herself.

So how is it possible for the current president to leave office with approval ratings nearing 50% with such an appalling record? The truth is most Argentines haven’t yet forgotten the traumatic experience of the last non-Peronist government which had to leave office in 2001 after two years in power amidst the worst economic crisis in the country’s history –which, it should be noted, was the inheritance of a previous decade of Peronist government during the 1990s. Many regard the relative economic stability of the Kirchner era as good enough and are willing to forgive the government’s excesses and abuses of power in exchange for immediate economic certainty. The problem is, sooner or later (and it looks like it’ll be sooner rather than later), someone will have to clear up the mess being left by 12 years of kirchnerismo too. The economic imbalances are just too many to keep things the way they are. Many voters may not have realized this yet (or they may not want to realize it), but whoever wins the election will have to make significant adjustments on the way the economy is run.

But even more important than the economy –in our view–, is the country’s return to a democracy based on the rule of law instead of the rule of the charismatic leader in charge (a trademark of Peronism). The worst legacy of the Kirchner era will not be their economic incompetence, but their total disregard for and frontal attack on the basic institutions of liberal democracy: the rule of law, an independent judiciary and a free press (and we could actually add fair elections, since they have perpetuated a voting system which favors electoral fraud). This was the first time that Peronism –a self-described “movement” created in the mid-twentieth century by a military general who combined elements of authoritarianism, populism, nationalism and trade unionism– governed the country for three consecutive terms. If Ms. Kichner’s heir, Daniel Scioli, comes to power winning a fourth term for the Peronist “movement”, it would only reinforce the party's grip on the Argentine state, undermining even more Argentina’s liberal democracy and making it look more and more like a one-party state in the mold of Mexico’s PRI.

So who are the candidates running to succeed Ms Kirchner? On the government side, we have Front for Victory (Peronist) candidate Daniel Scioli, the current governor of Buenos Aires province –the most populous one in the country, which concentrates almost 40% of the population. Mr. Scioli entered politics during the 1990s, when Peronism was on the center-right spectrum (the “movement” has the tendency to change ideology as frequently as it is convenient to keep power, which is, in the end, its only goal). While in the 1990s Mr. Scioli used to speak about the great progress achieved by the Peronist government of Carlos Menem regarding the privatizations done and overall liberalization of the economy, he now warns voters that the opposition wants to take the country back to the “neoliberal” 1990s. To be fair, this sounds more like a speech designed to appease Ms. Kirchner’s hardline followers than a manifestation of Mr. Scioli’s true beliefs. He is perceived as a pragmatist who would probably govern from the center and return to “normal” economic practices (that’s why he was never the preferred option of hardline kirchnerites, but it was their only competitive option).

On the opposition side, there are two main alternatives. The candidate with more chances to force a runoff with Mr. Scioli –who leads in the polls–, is Buenos Aires City mayor Mauricio Macri, from the center-right PRO party, who allied himself with the centrist Civic Coalition and the centrist Radical Civic Union to form “Cambiemos” (Let’s Change). Mr. Macri has campaigned on a platform of poverty reduction, respect for the rule of law, fight against drug traffickers and social unity. He proposes a return to a more market-friendly Argentina, integrated on the world stage and open to trade and investment. He also promises to keep social programs for those who need them and create real jobs. His social program is actually more ambitious than the government’s: he wants to introduce a universal citizens’ income for children and retirees in order to eliminate corruption-ridden focalized programs.

The third candidate is a dissident Peronist from the Renewal Front and a current member of Congress, Sergio Massa, who proposes tougher crime laws and an economic platform somewhere in the middle between the other two candidates.

In order for Mr. Scioli to avoid a runoff, he would need to garner 45% of the vote or 40% with a difference of 10 points over the second-highest vote getter, which all polls indicate will be Mr. Macri. The latest polls show a runoff can be neither guaranteed nor discarded. The candidates have been very stable around the 40/30/20 marks respectively, which makes a prediction of what can happen almost impossible.

Even though the three main candidates represent a break with Ms. Kirchner’s style of governing, Argentina’s political system desperately needs real change. And only a change of governing party would provide that. On this election we have no doubt Mr. Macri and his Cambiemos coalition offer the best chance for Argentines who want a return to liberal democratic government, a sensible economic program and a free society. And he turns out to be the tactical vote to force a runoff too. The choice is easy. On Sunday, the freedom-oriented choice in Argentina is Mr. Macri and Cambiemos.      

Posted by A.H..

 

A tough choice for Canada

October 18, 2015

More than an endorsement, our view on the Canadian election

 

After almost a decade at the helm of Canada’s federal government, Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper is fighting to remain in power in one of the closest electoral races in many years. On Monday, October 19th, Canadians will finally decide if they want a fourth consecutive Conservative administration or a new government. We have been struggling with our choice for this election for many weeks and are still not very sure...


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Posted by A.H..

 

Choose freedom in Denmark

June 18, 2015
Our endorsement for the Danish general election 

Danes go the polls on Thursday to choose a new parliament and decide if they give Helle Thorning-Schmidt another mandate as Prime Minister. Irrespective of which major party comes on top and is able to form a stable government --whether Ms. Thorning-Schmidt's center-left Social Democrats or Lars Lokke Rasmussen's center-right Venstre--, we believe the Danish parliament would do well having a strong dose of classical liberalism in it.

During the p...

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Posted by A.H..

 

Don’t turn back.

May 5, 2015

Our endorsement for the UK general election

After five years of a coalition government that many thought was not going to last much in office, Britain is going to the polls on Thursday to decide whether Prime Minister David Cameron will get a chance to continue in power –either alone or in a continued coalition– or not. It seems all but certain that the country will have its second hung parliament in a row, an astonishing sea change in British politics, which used to be dominated by a Co...


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Posted by A.H..

 

An easy choice in Sweden

September 13, 2014
Our endorsement for the Swedish general election 



Swedes go to the polls tomorrow to choose a new Parliament. After eight years in power, the liberal center-right Alliance (Alliansen) is in danger of being thrown out of power by the Social Democrats and their leftist allies. This would be a regrettable outcome for one of the world's success stories of the last decade.   

Looking at Sweden's record during the last eight years, one could argue --especially from a liberal perspective-- that that i...
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Posted by A.H..

 

Euro Election Results: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

May 27, 2014
The Good: 

- Pro-European parties (center-right + center-left + liberals) will continue to dominate the EU Parliament 
- Liberals remain the third largest group, holding the balance between Left and Right  
- The center-right has, once again, won more seats than the center-left 
- Liberal plurality of seats in the Netherlands, Estonia, Finland and Lithuania 
- UK Conservatives did better than expected despite the UKIP surge, while Labour did far worse than expected    
 
The Bad: 

- UK Liberal Dem...

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Posted by A.H..

 

A strong liberal center and center-right is needed in Europe

May 22, 2014

Euro citizens should vote to defend what has made Europe prosperous

European Union citizens go to the polls tomorrow to choose a new European Parliament for the next five years. At a time when the freedom of movement and the freedom to do business are at great danger from the populist Right and the Left, it is essential to have a strong liberal, pro-market presence to defend and continue to advance what has made Europe prosperous: the freedom of movement of goods, services, capital and people....

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Posted by A.H..

 

Two freedom fighters said goodbye in 2013

December 31, 2013

(And those who think it’s impossible to praise them both at the same time are just plain hypocrites)


Twenty thirteen is leaving us behind but before we say goodbye, it’s time to remember the two giants that went away during it. Perhaps two of the most influential political leaders of the twentieth century and certainly two of the most influential freedom fighters the world has ever known left us during this year: Margaret Thatcher and Nelson Mandela. Some will say it’s impossible to co...


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Posted by A.H..

 

No time for change

September 22, 2013

Our endorsement for the German federal election


Germans will decide on Sunday if they want to keep Angela Merkel as their chancellor after eight years in power. According to polls, an overwhelming majority of voters – around 60% – prefer Merkel as chancellor rather than her Social Democratic challenger Peer Steinbrück. It is not difficult to see why. Unlike most of its Euro-zone neighbours, the German economy is doing pretty well. Unemployment is at a two-decade low, investor confidence...


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Posted by A.H..

 

Change is coming to Norway, and we welcome it

September 9, 2013

Our endorsement for Norway’s general election


Norwegians go to the polls on Monday to choose a new Parliament and all polls are predicting defeat for the current centre-left coalition of Labour, the Socialist Left and the Centre Party. The Conservative Party leader, Erna Solberg, looks all but certain to become Norway’s next prime minister in a non-socialist government. We welcome this change.

Ms Solberg leads a pragmatic, centre-right Conservative Party (Høyre) with a liberal programm...


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Posted by A.H..

 
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